深度｜债市“低性价比”时代，“羊群效应”消失了

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges, characterized by high volatility and a complex interplay of factors affecting investment strategies [1][2][3] - The pressure on institutions to generate returns has intensified, leading to increased competition and operational difficulties in navigating the market [2][3] Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a notable decline in interest rates, with the yield on 10-year government bonds decreasing by nearly 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2024, resulting in a challenging investment environment [3][5] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated throughout the year, starting at 1.6% and reaching approximately 1.92% by September, reflecting economic recovery expectations and supply pressures [5][6] Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions displayed varied investment behaviors by the end of 2025, with large commercial and policy banks showing strong buying activity, while other institutions like joint-stock banks and city commercial banks were net sellers [11][12] - The investment strategies of institutions have diverged, with some focusing on short-term trading for excess returns, while others are more cautious, aiming to reduce costs and losses [9][12] Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is anticipated to open with a yield of around 1.85% on 10-year government bonds, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter [13][16] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with institutions adopting a cautious approach and preparing for potential adjustments based on monetary policy developments [15][16]