债市“低性价比”时代，“羊群效应”消失了

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges, characterized by high volatility and low yield environments, leading to increased operational difficulties for investment institutions [1][2] - The market dynamics shifted towards short-term sentiment driven by external factors rather than fundamental analysis, reflecting intense institutional competition and pressure for returns [1][2] - The differentiation in investment strategies among various types of institutions became more pronounced, with some actively seeking opportunities while others adopted a more cautious approach [6][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced a notable decline in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping nearly 1 percentage point compared to the end of 2024, leading to a correction phase [2] - By the end of 2025, the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.92% in September before stabilizing towards year-end [2][3] - The yield curve showed steepening trends, with long-term bonds like the 30-year government bond rising by 8 basis points in December, while shorter maturities saw slight declines [3] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions displayed varied levels of engagement in the bond market, with large commercial and policy banks showing strong net buying activity, while others like city commercial banks and securities firms were net sellers [6][7] - The net buying figures for November 2025 indicated a stark contrast, with large banks net buying 1,744 billion and insurance companies 2,705 billion, while securities firms and funds were significantly reducing their positions [6][7] - The behavior of institutions was influenced by year-end performance assessments, with some locking in profits while others adjusted their portfolios for the upcoming year [3][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is expected to open with a 10-year government bond yield of around 1.85%, with potential for policy easing anticipated in the first quarter [8][9] - There is a consensus among market participants that monetary policy may become more accommodative, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2026, although the timing and extent remain uncertain [9][10] - The market is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with institutions preparing for a challenging environment while seeking to optimize their strategies for better performance [11][12]