沥青上行压力增加 后期走势需看成本端“脸色”

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market has shown relative stability at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both futures and spot markets despite a drop in crude oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main asphalt futures contract opened with a premium exceeding 200 yuan/ton after the New Year holiday, ultimately rising by 111 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot market also experienced a substantial increase, with average price rises between 130 to 150 yuan/ton [1]. - The valuation of asphalt has significantly increased, with the asphalt-to-Brent crude oil ratio rising above 1.03 for futures and reaching 1.02 for spot prices, both at historically high seasonal levels [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market fundamentals remained relatively healthy in 2025, with effective inventory reduction leading to low inventory levels, particularly in factory stocks [2]. - Despite high profits for refineries in 2025, the winter storage prices were unexpectedly high, indicating a tight supply situation [2]. - There is a potential for significant contraction in asphalt demand in 2026, which could lead to increased production by refineries due to current high profit margins [2]. Group 3: Price Pressures and Future Outlook - The recent rapid increase in asphalt prices has likely already reflected positive expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicators, which could downgrade demand expectations and weaken valuation support [3]. - The ability to maintain price premiums will largely depend on fluctuations in crude oil costs, with the current crude oil market lacking a clear breakout logic [3].