新加坡又发声了，李显龙高调预测，美国没胆量和中国翻脸

Core Insights - Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered a thought-provoking speech at the "2026 Regional Outlook Forum," highlighting the underlying dilemmas in the U.S.'s seemingly tough stance towards China [1] - Lee predicts that neither the U.S. nor China will want to bear significant economic costs or engage in conflict in the next two to three years, indicating a reluctance from the U.S. to fully sever ties with China [1][9] Economic Context - The U.S.-China economic relationship faced unprecedented "stress tests" in 2025, with the U.S. attempting to impose "reciprocal tariffs" to force a decoupling from China [3] - Contrary to expectations, high tariffs did not cripple Chinese manufacturing but instead led to severe inflation and supply chain disruptions in the U.S., negatively impacting American consumers [5] - The U.S. economy, accounting for about one-fifth of the global economy, is closely tied to China, making complete decoupling impractical and economically damaging [7] Geopolitical Dynamics - Lee's insights suggest that the U.S. cannot afford a full-scale confrontation with China due to its massive national debt and fiscal deficits, which complicate its ability to engage in a cold war [9] - Singapore's unique position as a nation with a majority Chinese population yet influenced by Western political systems allows it to understand both U.S. and Chinese perspectives [15] - The U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific is diminishing, and its allies are increasingly skeptical, making a confrontation over Taiwan unlikely [16] Strategic Positioning - Singapore is advocating for the U.S. to rejoin the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to mitigate bilateral tensions and promote multilateralism [17] - Lee emphasizes the importance of recognizing the determination of the Chinese people in pursuing development, which is a force that external powers cannot suppress [17] Observational Perspective - Lee's analysis provides a valuable lens for understanding global dynamics, urging observers not to be swayed by sensational headlines or overreact to U.S. provocations [22] - The essence of great power competition lies in endurance and adapting to historical trends, rather than mere confrontational posturing [22]