芦哲：商品补贴存在“吃老本”问题，可持续性消费可补位

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by the chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, is that consumer spending does not require stimulation as people will spend money when they have it, which is a reflection of human nature [1] - Lu Zhe emphasizes the importance of the middle and low-income groups in consumer structure, noting that while they are significant, their impact is a slow variable [1] - He critiques the current approach of universal cash vouchers for consumption stimulation, suggesting that it is not realistic in the current environment, and points out the issue of "eating old capital" in current product subsidies [1] Group 2 - In the context of the 2025 automotive market, Lu Zhe highlights that strong growth in car consumption was largely driven by consumer expectations of the end of subsidies, leading to a pull-forward of demand from 2027 [3] - He warns of the risks associated with this demand drop-off and suggests that the government should gradually reduce consumption subsidies in 2026 compared to 2025 to avoid future issues [3] - Lu Zhe identifies sustainable consumption in service sectors, such as medical beauty, fitness, domestic services, and pet economy, as a key area for future growth and subsidy effectiveness [3]