张尧浠：地缘避险加上降息预期、金价维持牛市看涨前景

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the previous week's losses, with bullish sentiment re-emerging and prices stabilizing above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4,346.46 per ounce, reached a low of $4,344.06, and then surged above the $4,400 mark, ultimately hitting a weekly high of $4,516.88 before closing at $4,509.95. The weekly price fluctuation was $172.82, with a closing increase of $181.6, representing a 4.18% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4,328.35 [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was influenced by geopolitical risks in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the CME Group's third margin increase for precious metal futures and market expectations of negative non-farm payroll data. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the bullish sentiment [3][5]. - Central banks in Asia have continued to increase their gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of continued bullish momentum. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice or more later this year, which, along with rising fiscal debt, could push gold prices towards the $5,000 mark or higher [5][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices maintain their upward trajectory, there is potential for a significant bull market, with projections suggesting prices could reach between $5,500 and $6,000 [7][8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown strong performance, recovering from previous declines and reducing bearish patterns. If this trend continues, it could lead to a new bull market with over 30% gains [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have stabilized above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating increased bullish potential and the possibility of reaching new historical highs [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is maintaining its position above short-term moving averages, with bullish signals persisting, suggesting a continued upward trend [10].