光伏、电池产品出口退税政策调整，影响几何？

Macro - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products on January 9, aimed at reducing trade friction and supporting industrial upgrades, which may bolster export growth for related products in Q1 2026 [1][6] - The PPI in December 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, while the CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching +0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining at a high of +1.2%, aligning with market expectations [1][9] Battery Industry - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products is seen as a measure to prevent "involution" and enhance the profitability of export products, with a structured decline in tax rates and a transition period [2][11] - The tax rebate for battery products will decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be eliminated entirely from January 1, 2027, affecting lithium-ion batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries [11][12] - The estimated impact on export tax rebates is approximately $22 million for 2026 and $66 million for 2027, with the potential for a "rush to export" scenario due to the structured decline in tax rates [12][13] - The policy is expected to favor Chinese battery companies with overseas production capacity, enhancing their global competitiveness and market share [2][12][13] Trade Policy - Mexico's recent tariff adjustments are primarily aimed at countries like China and South Korea, affecting about 45% of China's exports to Mexico, which could impact overall Chinese exports by approximately 1% [3][4] - The tariff adjustments are interpreted as a gesture towards the U.S., indicating potential follow-up actions from other developed economies, particularly Canada, in response to U.S. trade policy [4][5]