Core Viewpoint - Haitong International forecasts that Hu Shang A Yi (02589) will achieve revenues of 4.22 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.63 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 540 million, 620 million, and 710 million CNY for the same years, assigning a target price of 105 HKD based on a 16X PE valuation for 2026, and initiating coverage with an outperform rating [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi is a leading fresh beverage company in China, expected to surpass 10,000 stores by the end of 2025, becoming the third fresh tea beverage brand in the country to achieve this milestone [2] - The company is leveraging a "one body, two wings" business model, focusing on the Hu Shang A Yi brand in China while also developing the Cha Pu Bu brand and expanding internationally [2][3] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its store network in northern markets by adopting a franchise model, sharing resources, and incentivizing external talent, which has contributed to its rapid growth [2] - The brand's marketing strategy emphasizes health and wellness, targeting female consumers through branding and product offerings, which has helped in customer acquisition [2] - The low-threshold store model and inclusive franchise system have allowed for sustainable expansion, with new franchisees expected to reinvest profits into opening additional stores [2] Group 3: Financial Forecast - The company is projected to open over 2,000 new Hu Shang A Yi stores and more than 1,000 new Cha Pu Bu stores by 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory [4] - The company anticipates that same-store sales will remain stable in 2026, despite a high base from delivery subsidies in 2025, by enhancing coffee offerings and increasing marketing efforts [4]
海通国际：首予沪上阿姨“优于大市”评级 目标价105港元