宏观与成本双支撑，重点提示冬储期钢铁配置机会

Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.35% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 2.58%, long products by 1.90%, and flat products by 2.89% [1][2] - Iron ore segment saw a rise of 3.53%, steel consumables increased by 10.98%, and trade circulation rose by 1.12% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of January 9, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 86.0%, up by 0.78 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 56.9%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.138 million tons, an increase of 60,400 tons week-on-week, representing a 0.85% rise [2] - Daily average molten iron production was 2.295 million tons, up by 20,700 tons week-on-week and 43,000 tons year-on-year [2] Demand Situation - As of January 9, the consumption of five major steel products was 7.968 million tons, down by 442,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 5.26% [2] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down by 2,400 tons week-on-week, a decline of 2.47% [2] Inventory Situation - As of January 9, social inventory of five major steel products was 8.652 million tons, an increase of 143,900 tons week-on-week, up by 1.69% [3] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.888 million tons, up by 73,800 tons week-on-week, an increase of 1.94% [3] Price and Profit Situation - As of January 9, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, up by 13.30 yuan/ton week-on-week, a rise of 0.39% [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,585.2 yuan/ton, up by 11.93 yuan/ton week-on-week, an increase of 0.18% [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 31.25% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -25 yuan/ton, down by 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 212.50% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of January 9, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 823 yuan/ton, up by 12.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, an increase of 1.48% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1,650 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Future Outlook - The steel price performance is expected to be stable or slightly improve in the first quarter due to macroeconomic support and cost factors [5] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to policies aimed at stabilizing growth in real estate and infrastructure [5] - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with potential for valuation recovery in companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [6]