成交额超2亿元，国债ETF5至10年(511020)历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for interest rates to decline, emphasizing that a significant drop requires specific positive factors to trigger it [1] - Two main factors that could lead to a decline in interest rates are identified: a period of high rates followed by reduced upward momentum, and investor expectations of rate cuts around the Chinese New Year [1] - The article suggests monitoring for potential bond buying opportunities at the end of January or early February, while any rapid adjustments in rates should be viewed as weak rebounds [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the China 5-10 Year Treasury Active Bond Index (net price) has increased by 0.01% [3] - The 5-10 Year Treasury ETF (511020) is experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 115.21 yuan and a turnover rate of 13.75%, amounting to a transaction volume of 244 million yuan [3] - The 5-10 Year Treasury ETF has a total scale of 1.778 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 595 million yuan over the past year [3] - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 Year Treasury ETF this year is 0.21%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [3] - The management fee for the 5-10 Year Treasury ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - The tracking error for the 5-10 Year Treasury ETF over the past two months is 0.023%, indicating close tracking of the underlying index [3]