成交额超1亿元，国开债券ETF(159651)交投活跃

Group 1 - The current upward trend in 10-year government bond yields is expected to reach around 1.9%, while 30-year government bond yields are approaching 2.35% due to factors such as increased risk appetite in equities, the stock-bond relationship, and inflation expectations from rising commodity prices [1] - Despite limited central bank liquidity injections, funding rates remain low, and the December PMI data shows a slight recovery, leading to a modest increase in inflation expectations. However, nominal economic growth expectations are not significantly high, indicating that the factors influencing bond yields are unlikely to lead to a sustained upward trend [1] - The 30-year local government and national bonds are considered to have allocation value, with the 30-10 year yield spread expected to remain slightly above 40 basis points, correlating the 2.35% yield of 30-year bonds with the aforementioned 10-year yield levels [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 106.83 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.07% over the past year [1] - The liquidity of the National Development Bank Bond ETF is active, with an intraday turnover of 22.08% and a transaction volume of 143 million yuan, while the average daily transaction volume over the past year is 284 million yuan [1] - The latest net outflow of funds from the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 8.3324 million yuan, with a total "absorption" of 138 million yuan over the past eight trading days [2] Group 3 - The management fee rate for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [3] - As of January 9, 2026, the tracking error of the National Development Bank Bond ETF over the past two months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [4]