Vatee万腾：黄金为何再创新高？降息与避险双重推动

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,580 per ounce, is driven by a combination of economic expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] Economic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reinforcing market predictions for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs for non-yielding assets like gold, increasing their attractiveness [3] - Since the Fed's three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of last year, the market has prepared for a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing domestic unrest in Iran has created political uncertainty, triggering increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Heightened geopolitical risks typically lead investors to seek traditional "safe havens" during times of instability [3] Market Trends - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, continuing a nearly 10% increase from the previous week, while palladium and platinum have strengthened as well [3] - This indicates that current capital flows are not solely focused on gold but are reassessing the entire precious metals sector [3] Long-term Perspectives - Despite significant gains in gold over the past year, funds have not rushed to exit, with some asset management firms choosing to maintain their positions, reflecting a recognition of gold's long-term value [3] - A long-term examination of the U.S. dollar's credibility is also contributing to gold's status as a strategic asset [3] Potential Variables - A forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on key tariff policies from the previous administration may impact policy continuity and market stability expectations, adding another layer of global risk sentiment [3]