【IPO前哨】爷爷的农场赴港：业绩连增之下，有哪些风险点？

Core Viewpoint - The recent warming trend in the Hong Kong IPO market is highlighted by significant first-day gains for several new stocks, including Grandpa's Farm International Holdings, which has submitted its prospectus for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Grandpa's Farm operates under an offshore structure established in 2015, with its founders launching their business in Guangzhou. The company has evolved to include a range of baby food and family food products [3]. - The company has expanded its product offerings significantly, with its SKU count projected to grow from 158 at the end of 2023 to 269 by the third quarter of 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - According to Frost & Sullivan, Grandpa's Farm ranks second in the Chinese baby food market by total transaction value in 2024, achieving the highest compound annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 among the top five companies [5]. - The company is also ranked first in the organic baby food segment by total transaction value in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 622 million RMB in 2023 to 875 million RMB in 2024, representing a 40.6% growth. The first three quarters of 2025 saw revenue reach 780 million RMB, a 23.2% year-on-year increase [6]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025 was 75.91 million RMB, 103.21 million RMB, and 90.08 million RMB, respectively, indicating growth despite a slight decline in adjusted net profit margins [6][7]. Group 4: Revenue Sources - The majority of revenue comes from baby food products, accounting for 79.6% in 2023, which is projected to decrease to 53.6% by the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a diversification in revenue sources [7][8]. Group 5: Expenditure and Investment - Sales and distribution expenses have been increasing, with a rise from 32.3% of revenue in 2023 to 36.3% in the first three quarters of 2025. This growth rate exceeds that of revenue [10]. - The company relies heavily on e-commerce platforms for sales, with e-commerce service and promotion costs making up 66.3% to 72.3% of total sales and distribution expenses over the years [10][11]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Supply Chain - Grandpa's Farm utilizes an OEM model, sourcing products from 62 manufacturers to optimize production capabilities and manage costs [12]. - The company is also establishing its own factory in Guangzhou to enhance production capabilities and quality control [13]. Group 7: Fundraising and Future Plans - The company plans to use the net proceeds from its IPO to enhance product development, invest in supply chain improvements, strengthen brand marketing, expand sales networks, and for general corporate purposes [14].