宏观深度报告：“该省省、该花花”——中国消费的“K型分化”

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant "K-shaped differentiation" in China's consumption market, driven by changes in income structure and demographic shifts, leading to a polarization between high-end quality consumption and high-cost performance consumption [1][5][12]. Group 1: Manifestations of Consumption "K-shaped Differentiation" - From the consumer perspective, "K-shaped differentiation" is evident in the choice of consumption scenarios, product selection, and service consumption. Traditional malls are losing appeal, while high-end luxury malls and low-cost platforms like Pinduoduo are gaining traction [1][14][17]. - Sales at Beijing SKP reached a record 26.5 billion yuan in 2023, with an annual compound growth rate of approximately 7.5% from 2019 to 2024, contrasting with negative growth in overall retail sales in Beijing [14][15]. - Pinduoduo has emerged as a significant player in the low-cost consumption scene, leveraging a subsidy model to offer high cost-performance products, appealing to consumers' desire for value during uncertain economic times [17][21]. - In terms of product choices, brands like Labubu are gaining popularity for their emotional value, while brands like Mixue Ice City are preferred for their cost-effectiveness [17][19]. - Service consumption shows a clear "K-shaped differentiation," with some consumers opting for luxury customized travel experiences, while others prefer budget-friendly travel options that maximize value [18][19]. Group 2: Reasons for Consumption "K-shaped Differentiation" - The demand side is influenced by generational changes, with Generation Z and younger seniors becoming the main consumer groups, shifting their focus from practicality to emotional value and cost-effectiveness [2][24][25]. - The macro policy shift towards "investing in people" has encouraged consumers to prioritize emotional value in their purchasing decisions, moving away from a sole focus on practical utility [28][29]. - On the supply side, increased competition in a saturated market has led retailers to adopt dual-track strategies, offering both high-end and low-cost products to meet diverse consumer needs [30][31]. Group 3: Theoretical Implications of Consumption "K-shaped Differentiation" - The "K-shaped differentiation" represents a fundamental shift in traditional consumption theory, where the focus has moved from a utilitarian perspective to a dual-value approach that emphasizes both emotional and practical value [2][32][36]. - The utility function in the "K-shaped differentiation" model suggests that consumers are willing to pay higher prices for products that provide significant emotional value, while also accepting lower emotional value if the practical utility and price are favorable [33][34]. - Retailers' supply curves have shifted from a traditional upward slope to a "U-shaped" curve, indicating that both high-end luxury and low-cost products are more profitable, while mid-range products face challenges due to price competition [34][35].