Nvidia(US:NVDA) Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-12 02:48Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, with a notable increase in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) opened up by 1.15% on January 12, with a net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over the past two trading days [1] - The index tracked by the semiconductor equipment ETF has risen over 15% this year, outperforming mainstream semiconductor indices [3] - Key stocks such as Zhongwei Company and Cambrian have seen significant gains, with Zhongwei up nearly 4% and Jianghua Micro up over 5% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Increases - A significant increase in trading volume in A-shares has initiated a spring market rally, with semiconductor equipment leading the upward trend [5] - International storage giants are expected to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [6] - SanDisk has proposed a unique supply contract requiring 100% cash prepayment from clients to secure storage chip allocations for 1 to 3 years [6] Group 3: Domestic Substitution and Material Demand - The domestic substitution process for semiconductor materials is advancing, with a recent anti-dumping investigation into dichlorodihydrosilane (DCS) from Japan, a key electronic chemical material [6] - The demand for semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals is expected to rise due to AI data centers and the urgent need for low-latency, high-bandwidth memory solutions [7] - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach approximately $70 billion by 2025, with a 6% year-on-year growth [7] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Key Players - The trend of "supply security + domestic substitution" for critical semiconductor materials is strengthening amid rising security concerns [8] - Companies with technological accumulation and capacity in high-end materials are likely to see market share and profit growth as advanced processes and domestic substitution trends continue [8] - The semiconductor equipment ETF focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 90% of its holdings in the high-tech, high-value upstream and midstream areas of the semiconductor industry [8]