“特朗普变量”搅得金融市场天翻地覆，美联储与全球央行政策路径愈发分化

Group 1 - The core influence of the "Trump variable" is shaping global central bank policy and stock market trends, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction and interest rate expectations [2][3] - Global central banks are expected to adopt increasingly diverse monetary policy paths, moving away from synchronized actions in response to U.S. economic uncertainties under Trump's administration [1][2] - Bloomberg Economics predicts that major central banks will exhibit varied interest rate trajectories, with the U.S. policy uncertainty continuing to challenge central bank decision-making confidence [2][5] Group 2 - Excluding the U.S., developed economies' interest rate indicators are expected to remain stable, highlighting the potential for significant divergence in monetary policies among developed nations [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions are likely to be more scrutinized than before, as it faces mixed economic signals and political pressures from the Trump administration [3][6] - Economists anticipate that while the Federal Reserve may implement more substantial rate cuts than previously expected, other major central banks may not follow suit due to their earlier aggressive rate cuts and inflation concerns [6][5]