机构看金市：1月12日
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-12 03:25

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with a decline in unemployment and an increase in average hourly wages, but disappointing job growth, leading to a complex market reaction regarding interest rate expectations and supporting gold and silver prices amid geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, lower than the anticipated 4.5% [3]. - The total job growth for 2025 was only 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since 2020, indicating a persistent weakness in the labor market [2][3]. - The downward revision of job data for October and November by a total of 76,000 further exacerbates concerns about the labor market's structural weaknesses [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Gold and silver prices have been rising due to the mixed non-farm data and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has heightened market risk aversion [1][2]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported increase of 0.93 tons in December, indicating strong demand for precious metals [2]. - The upcoming release of the December CPI data is crucial, as a lower-than-expected core CPI could further support precious metal prices by reinforcing expectations of continued monetary easing [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran and the broader Middle East, are driving market sentiment and influencing the strong performance of precious metals [1][3]. - The expectation that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy further due to weak job growth and a declining unemployment rate is providing additional support for gold [4]. - The potential impact of the Supreme Court's decision regarding tariffs on precious metals could introduce short-term volatility, necessitating caution among investors [2].