扩内需促消费政策显效 物价回暖，经济“体温”回升

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a decline of 2.6% for the entire year of 2025 [2] - Analysts predict a moderate recovery in overall prices in 2026, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and the development of new economic drivers [2] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2025 was the highest since August 2023, driven primarily by rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather conditions, as well as the effects of year-end consumption promotion policies [2][3] - Specific price increases included fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - The prices of household appliances and vehicles also saw a month-on-month increase, exceeding market expectations [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points in December 2025, influenced by rising raw material prices and the effects of policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [4] - The PPI experienced a continuous month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [4] - For 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline was 2.6%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous year, attributed to insufficient external demand and ongoing economic structural adjustments [4] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the CPI will see a moderate increase in 2026, potentially around 1.2%, as the effects of growth-stimulating and consumption-promoting policies take hold [7] - The PPI is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline narrowing to around 0.5%, although a return to positive growth may take longer [4][5] - Measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods are being implemented, with local governments actively working to maintain market stability [6]