“存储超级牛市”全面来临？2026年还要继续涨价，PC和手机无处可逃

Core Viewpoint - The global storage chip market is experiencing a rare surge in prices, entering a "super bull market" phase, with prices surpassing historical highs from 2018 due to increased demand from AI infrastructure and server capacity [2][3]. Price Trends - The report from Counterpoint Research indicates that DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise significantly, with an overall increase of 40%-50% projected for Q4 2025, followed by another 40%-50% increase in Q1 2026, and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [2][3]. - The price of commonly used 64GB RDIMM modules in data centers is expected to jump from $255 in Q3 2025 to approximately $450 in Q4 2025, with further increases anticipated to around $700 by March 2026 [3]. Cost Impact on Downstream Manufacturers - The rapid price increase has rendered existing cost models for downstream manufacturers ineffective, as the cost advantages gained from other components are being consumed by rising memory prices [4]. - The DRAM industry's revenue is projected to show strong growth in Q3 2025, with contract prices continuing to rise, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced process products, leading to a significant recovery in overall storage business profit margins [4]. AI Demand and Capacity Constraints - The primary driver of this price surge is the demand from AI training and inference clusters, with major cloud service providers and internet companies securing high-end HBM and server DRAM capacity, which has raised prices for AI server memory and squeezed resources available for consumer PCs and smartphones [5]. - Server DRAM prices are expected to increase by over 60% in Q1 2026, with U.S. cloud computing firms beginning to stockpile supplies as early as late 2025 [5]. Material Cost Increases for Consumer Electronics - The ongoing price increases in DRAM and NAND are projected to raise material costs for low-end smartphones by approximately 25%, mid-range models by about 15%, and high-end models by around 10% starting in mid-2025 [5][6]. - If storage prices rise as forecasted, smartphone material costs could increase by an additional 8%-15%, making it difficult to avoid upward trends in average selling prices [6]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Impact - Despite rising costs, terminal demand has not expanded correspondingly, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 being adjusted downwards by about 2%, particularly affecting mid to low-end models [8]. - Major brands are leveraging strong bargaining power to mitigate cost pressures, while smaller brands face significant profit margin compression due to rising upstream prices and limited ability to raise downstream prices [8]. Future Market Outlook - The storage market is expected to see a clear division between "winners" and "losers," with upstream storage manufacturers experiencing high demand while downstream assemblers and some brand manufacturers face cost pressures [9]. - Key areas of focus for the coming months include whether storage manufacturers will increase capital expenditures and capacity planning for 2026, and whether the pace of AI infrastructure investment will slow, potentially affecting the high price levels of storage [9].