国金证券：存款搬家与市占率提升双重加持 银保渠道锁定26年新单增长主阵地

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to see robust growth in the individual insurance channel and significant benefits from the bancassurance channel, driven by the migration of deposits and the proactive expansion of large insurance companies in the bancassurance market, leading to an increase in market share by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Premium Growth - It is anticipated that new insurance premiums from listed insurance companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [2]. - The growth in scale will dilute fixed costs, particularly in the bancassurance channel, resulting in overall profit enhancement [2]. - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, leading to a 15.6 percentage point increase in market share from 2019 to 2023, reaching 23.8% [2]. Group 2: Customer Behavior and Preferences - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents will have maturing deposits in 2026, with 50% of respondents expecting 10%-30% and 27.3% expecting 30%-50% of their clients' deposits to mature [3]. - The overall age of customers with maturing deposits is skewed towards older demographics, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4]. - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products, with customer returns rated highest at 5.5 points [5]. Group 3: Bancassurance Channel Dynamics - The bancassurance channel is projected to see significant inflows, with estimated incremental funds of 3,057 billion, 5,094 billion, and 11,150 billion for January, Q1, and the entire year of 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% [5]. - The growth rate is expected to be higher for leading insurance companies, continuing the trend of concentration in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is recommended for active investment, with expectations of sustained high growth in the liability side and favorable market conditions for assets [6]. - The anticipated growth in the bancassurance channel, coupled with a favorable environment for stock markets and interest rates, is expected to support the expansion of large insurance companies [6].