SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2026-01-12 03:45Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is expected to experience high growth on the liability side, particularly through the bancassurance channel, while benefiting from the spring market rally, leading to a sustained performance in insurance stocks [1][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - The market welcomed the new year with increased trading activity, with daily stock fund turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 137% [2]. - As of January 9, the financing and margin trading balances reached 2,609.9 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 3.4% and 6.9% from the previous week [2]. - The average daily margin trading balance since 2026 has been 2,598.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42% [2]. Group 2: M&A Market Performance - The M&A market in China showed strong performance in 2025, with a total of 8,151 disclosed M&A events, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, while the total transaction value reached approximately 25,894 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.12% [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokers that are expected to rebound during the spring market rally, with strong recommendations for quality brokers with significant valuation and performance mismatches, particularly Guotai Junan [4]. - Attention should also be given to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from investments in gene therapy [4]. - Highlighting the impressive growth rates in diversified financial services, companies like Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings are recommended for investment [4]. Group 4: Bancassurance Growth - The bancassurance channel is projected to be a major driver of new business and new business value (NBV) growth in 2026, with a significant increase in household savings since 2020 [5]. - The estimated incremental funds for the bancassurance channel in January, Q1, and the entire year of 2026 are 305.7 billion yuan, 509.4 billion yuan, and 1,115 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% [5]. - Larger insurance companies are expected to outperform in growth due to stricter product entry requirements and improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The insurance sector is entering a favorable cycle with simultaneous increases in volume and price, driven by the migration of deposits and strong demand for retirement savings [6]. - The cost of existing liabilities is expected to decrease, while new policies will benefit from favorable interest spreads, supporting the expansion of large insurance companies [6].