华安期货：1月12日黄金白银震荡偏强思路

Core Viewpoint - The trend of increasing official gold reserves globally, high public debt leading to sovereign currency crises, and broad application prospects in the industrial sector continue to provide medium to long-term support for precious metals [3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 50,000, below the market expectation of 60,000, with November data revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and October revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4% [1]. - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for January is 54, reaching a four-month high, with expectations for an increase to 53.5 [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The short-term factors include the imminent announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair and recent global geopolitical risks. Overall, in a highly uncertain economic and financial environment, gold is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [3]. - The market outlook suggests a strong oscillating strategy, with a need to control positions and be mindful of risks. This week, attention will be on U.S. CPI, as well as China's trade and social financing indicators [3]. Group 3: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from April 1, the export tax rebate for value-added tax on photovoltaic and other products will be canceled [1].