港股“锂矿双雄”股价上扬，退税调整或刺激“抢出口”需求释放

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant rise on January 12, with increases exceeding 4% for some companies, driven by a surge in lithium carbonate futures prices and changes in export tax policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, lithium stocks such as Li Shi International (00842) rose by 4.71%, Tianqi Lithium (09696) increased by 4.08%, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw a rise of 3.19% [2]. - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit a limit-up, increasing by 9% to 156,060 yuan per ton [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1][3]. - Analysts suggest that battery manufacturers may increase orders before the tax changes take effect, leading to a short-term boost in lithium carbonate demand [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - While the immediate outlook for lithium prices is positive due to increased demand from battery exports, the long-term impact of the export tax cancellation may suppress demand as profit margins decrease across the supply chain [3].