国际黄金期价，创历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold futures reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - In the first complete trading week of 2026, both gold and silver futures prices continued their bullish trend, with gold and silver prices increasing by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively [1]. - Silver futures exhibited significant volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [3]. - Goldman Sachs indicated that silver prices are expected to continue rising, but with higher volatility and uncertainty compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Two main factors have intensified downward pressure on precious metal prices: the annual rebalancing adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which significantly reduced the weight of precious metals, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures [10]. - The increase in margin requirements, particularly a 28.6% rise for silver, is expected to curb high-leverage and speculative trading [10]. - Despite facing short-term downward pressure, multiple institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth this year [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, are likely to support metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [12]. - Additionally, international oil prices have risen due to heightened geopolitical risks and unexpected decreases in U.S. crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices increasing by 3.14% and 4.26% respectively [12].