美元弱势开局，人民币迎来“开门红”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan continues its strong performance into 2026, breaking the key "7" level against the US dollar, significantly impacting cross-border remittances, tuition payments, and trade settlements [1]. Group 1: Currency Trends - Since late 2025, the US dollar has shown a clear depreciation trend against the yuan, primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The yuan appreciated from 7.15 in late 2025, reaching a high of 6.989 in mid-December, marking a 15-month peak due to a surge in currency exchange by exporters [2]. - In the first four trading days of 2026, the onshore yuan rose over 1500 points, while the offshore yuan rebounded nearly 2000 points, indicating a strong upward trend [2]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The weakening of the US dollar is a key external driver for the yuan's appreciation, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates three times since September 2025, leading to expectations of further easing in 2026 [3]. - Concerns over the US economy's slowdown and high valuations in the stock market have diminished the dollar's safe-haven appeal, contributing to its ongoing decline [3]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals Supporting Yuan Strength - China's economic resilience has provided a solid foundation for the yuan's exchange rate, with a record trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a projected historical high in the current account surplus [4]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US has reduced the dollar's attractiveness for arbitrage, while the valuation advantage of yuan-denominated assets has become more pronounced [5]. - Continuous capital inflows into Chinese assets, driven by the low valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, further reinforce the yuan's strong position [5].