巴新2025年经济在挑战中显现韧性—矿产与制造业支撑增长

Core Insights - Papua New Guinea (PNG) is building a more resilient economy by 2025, driven by agriculture, manufacturing, and mining sectors despite challenges in agriculture [1] - The economy is on track to achieve a projected 4.3% real GDP growth by September 2025, supported by increased agricultural exports, improved mining output, and ongoing public infrastructure projects [1] - Employment has grown by 2.8% over the past 12 months, with both mining and non-mining sectors contributing to job creation [1] Economic Performance - The mining sector has become a pillar of the economy, with the PNG LNG project contributing over 5 billion kina in tax revenue in the first five months of 2025, and an estimated 1.6 billion kina in corporate income tax for the entire mining sector [2] - Gold production and exports have increased since 2024, with market prices rising to approximately 18,000 kina per ounce, further boosting the mining sector [2] - The agricultural sector faces mixed results; while international coffee prices have surged due to adverse weather in major producing regions, PNG's coffee export volume has declined [2] Challenges and Risks - Structural challenges and instability in the agricultural sector remain key areas of concern, despite the overall economic growth driven by strong performance in mining and manufacturing [2] - There are risks related to uneven access to credit and imbalances in liquidity distribution within the banking system, which may limit effective monetary policy transmission and credit expansion to the broader economy [1]