BBMarkets：美国就业放缓强化降息预期，牵动债市收益率曲线

Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. non-farm employment data indicates a slowdown in job growth, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to potentially continue lowering interest rates to support the economy [1] Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The bond market is increasingly focused on the changes in yields of different maturities, particularly the spread between short-term and long-term government bonds [1] - Following the employment data release, market attention has shifted to the upcoming consumer price index, with expectations that inflation will remain resilient, potentially providing justification for the Fed to pause further actions [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Some institutional investors are adopting a "steepening trade" strategy, anticipating that short-term bonds will outperform long-term bonds, thereby steepening the yield curve [3] - The difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has widened to its highest level in nearly nine months, indicating a sustained interest in this strategy among fixed-income management institutions [3] Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Capital Group's fixed income portfolio manager believes that this strategy may still have performance potential under various economic scenarios over the next one to two years [3] - Market participants are also closely monitoring external policy developments, including potential adjustments to tariff policies and government spending, which could impact the bond market [4] - There are concerns that if external policy changes alleviate inflation pressure, it could provide support for long-term bonds, affecting the performance of the steepening yield curve strategy [4]