韧性筑基，提质绘新：银河基金2026年度策略会精华观点来了

Macro Economy - In 2025, China's consumer market showed a moderate recovery, with a retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year from January to November, although there was a decline in consumption in categories like home appliances and automobiles in the second half due to subsidy reductions and real estate adjustments [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic development and aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, while also focusing on local development and the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Real Estate and Trade - Since mid-2025, there has been downward pressure on real estate transaction volumes, with a 26.6% year-on-year decline in transaction area and a 24.65% drop in transaction units in 30 major cities as of October [2] - Despite challenges in the real estate sector, foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in goods exports from January to November, and net exports exceeding 1 trillion USD [2] Technology Sector - In 2025, AI applications achieved significant scale, with a reduction in the "hallucination rate" of a popular AI model from 14% to 2% by the end of the year, leading to a surge in consumer applications [3] - By the end of 2025, global investment in Chinese assets through ETFs reached 831 billion USD, with 95 billion USD flowing into the technology sector, highlighting its importance for foreign investment [3] Semiconductor and AI - The semiconductor, communication, and robotics sectors performed well in 2025, with respective index increases of 127.57%, 45.93%, and 26.33%, driven by rising AI capital expenditures in North America and breakthroughs in domestic supply chains [4] - The AI sector is expected to transition into a monetization phase in 2026, with advancements in semiconductor technology and a focus on cost-effectiveness in the AI industry chain [4] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector in 2025 focused on energy storage and AIDC electrical equipment, with solid-state battery pilot lines and structural optimization in the photovoltaic industry driving temporary price increases [4] - Expectations for 2026 include the solid-state battery reaching a production inflection point [4] Commodities Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an overall increase of 88.50% in 2025, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply chain disruptions [5] - The relationship between AI, new energy, and commodities is highlighted, with predictions of significant shortages in copper and lithium by 2035 [5] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed notable improvement in 2025, with a focus on "emotional consumption" and "brand overseas expansion," particularly in domestic appliances and electric vehicles [6] - The consumption sector is characterized by a "hot first half and a quiet second half," with a focus on channel transformation and community-oriented products [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience structural differentiation and value reassessment in 2026, focusing on innovation, international expansion, and policy reforms [7] - Significant breakthroughs in AI applications in healthcare are anticipated, including AI-assisted diagnostics and clinical transformations [7]