STARTRADER星迈：国际油价金银同步大涨 背后原因何在？

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in the international commodity market have led to a synchronized increase in oil and precious metal prices, driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of a weaker dollar, and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4] Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply chains, prompting investors to reassess the uncertainty surrounding oil supply and triggering a rebound in oil prices [3] - The changing global security environment has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver becoming preferred choices for investors [3] Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index, exacerbated by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following investigations into its chairman, has provided support for dollar-denominated oil and precious metal prices [3] - Historical data indicates a significant negative correlation between the dollar and commodities, with a weaker dollar reducing holding costs and attracting global capital to increase positions in commodities [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Structural adjustments in supply-demand dynamics are reinforcing the upward trend in prices, with OPEC+ deciding to maintain production cuts until early 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the oil market [4] - In the precious metals market, continued purchases by global central banks, with a reported net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, have bolstered demand, contributing to a solid foundation for rising gold and silver prices [4] Differentiated Price Drivers - The logic behind price increases varies between commodities, with oil prices primarily driven by short-term geopolitical risks, while gold and silver are more influenced by concerns over monetary credibility and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process [4] - Fund flows indicate this differentiation, with the oil market seeing short-term speculative inflows, while the precious metals market is characterized by a combined increase in holdings from both institutions and retail investors, evidenced by significant growth in gold ETF and physical gold bar sales [4]