Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-12 07:32Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has achieved a significant breakthrough in early 2026, with spot gold prices surpassing $4600 per ounce for the first time, driven by continuous purchases from central banks and high investment interest in gold [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Price Records - As of January 12, 2026, the London spot gold price reached a peak of $4601.38 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 2% [2]. - In 2025, international gold prices saw a cumulative increase of over 60%, the largest annual gain in nearly 46 years, setting the stage for the new high [2]. - Domestic gold prices also surged, with Shenzhen's real-time gold sales reaching 1018.27 yuan, reflecting a strong correlation with international price movements [2]. Group 2: Risk Warnings from Major Banks - Major state-owned banks, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings and adjusted trading rules to guide investors towards more rational participation in gold investments [3][7]. - Bank of China has specifically warned against "gold pre-pricing" investment traps, highlighting the risks of illegal trading platforms that lure investors with promises of low thresholds and high returns [7]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank has raised the minimum investment threshold for its gold accumulation products from 1000 yuan to 1100 yuan, indicating a proactive approach to risk management [7]. Group 3: Central Bank's Role - The strong performance of gold prices is closely linked to the People's Bank of China's ongoing accumulation of gold, with reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month [9]. - The central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, reinforcing gold's significance in reserve asset allocation [9]. Group 4: Divergent Market Outlook - Market institutions have differing views on the future trajectory of gold prices, with a consensus on short-term high volatility [11]. - The World Gold Council suggests that current gold prices reflect expectations of stable global economic growth and a potential interest rate cut cycle, predicting a short-term fluctuation within a ±5% range [11]. - Various macroeconomic scenarios indicate potential price movements: a 5% increase if economic growth slows, a 15%-30% rise in case of a deep recession, and a 5%-20% decline if a strong economic recovery strengthens the dollar [11]. - Analysts from Everbright Securities express an optimistic outlook, predicting a target price of $4950 per ounce for gold in 2026, emphasizing its role as a crucial asset in investment portfolios amid rising geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [11].