研报掘金丨长江证券：维持中国核电“买入”评级，产能扩张带动电量稳增

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that the expansion of nuclear power capacity in China is driving stable growth in electricity generation, although multiple factors are limiting the growth rate of performance [1] Group 1: Electricity Generation Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative electricity generation for the year is projected to be 244.43 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.98% [1] - The company's controlled nuclear power units achieved an electricity generation of 200.81 billion kWh in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.66%, successfully meeting the initial generation target for the year [1] - Contributing factors include the commissioning of Unit 1 in Zhangzhou, the normal operation recovery of Unit 4 in Fuqing Nuclear Power, and a reduction in maintenance days compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Future Capacity and Growth - Currently, the company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or approved for construction, with a total installed capacity of 20.647 million kW, ensuring long-term growth potential [1] - The electricity generation target for 2026 is set at 259.2 billion kWh, with nuclear power expected to contribute 210 billion kWh and renewable energy projected at 49.2 billion kWh [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - Based on the latest operational data, the company's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 0.44 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 20.42, 21.31, and 18.75 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these forecasts [1]