Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-12 07:38Core Viewpoint - The handling of Venezuela by the Trump administration may jeopardize its oil objectives, as emphasized by former National Security Advisor John Bolton, who suggests that focusing on oil deals rather than regime change could deter investment from oil companies [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Infrastructure - The U.S. government aims to allow major American oil companies to invest billions to repair Venezuela's severely damaged oil infrastructure, with an estimated cost of $183 billion needed for rebuilding the energy sector from 2026 to 2040 [3][5]. - Trump claims that Venezuela will "hand over" up to 50 million barrels of oil, valued at over $2 billion, to benefit both nations [1][3]. - Chevron, the only U.S. company still operating in Venezuela, is currently focused on employee safety and asset integrity [5]. Group 2: Political and Legal Environment - Bolton argues that U.S. oil companies prefer a democratically elected government with an independent judiciary rather than the current Maduro regime, which is viewed as a "thug rule" [3][4]. - The political situation remains uncertain, with Trump seemingly favoring former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the interim president, marking a shift from previous policies that supported opposition leaders [3][4]. - Historical context shows that Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, leading to the expropriation of foreign assets, which has created a legacy of distrust among potential investors [4]. Group 3: Challenges to Investment - The infrastructure in Venezuela is in a dire state due to decades of mismanagement and underinvestment, making it difficult to develop its vast oil reserves [5]. - The lack of political stability and legal order poses significant risks for foreign companies considering investment in Venezuela [5]. - Experts note that while the potential returns on investment could be substantial, the current political and regulatory uncertainties may dampen enthusiasm from oil giants [5].