Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2026-01-12 08:13Group 1: Market Trends - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a rebound in 2025, with prices initially fluctuating around 75,200 CNY/ton and dropping to a low of 59,000 CNY/ton by June, before surging to over 130,000 CNY/ton by December, marking an increase of over 120% from the low [1][2] - The price trajectory of lithium carbonate in 2025 is characterized by a typical V-shaped curve, with a significant drop in early months followed by a strong recovery in the latter half of the year [1][2] - By December 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures reached 134,500 CNY/ton, despite a slight pullback afterward, indicating a robust market recovery [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is supported by the growth in the energy storage market and the increasing orders from battery manufacturers, which have led to a reduction in market inventory [3][4] - The new energy storage capacity in China has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total [4] - The performance of lithium battery companies has improved significantly, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium seeing stock price increases of over 160% and 173% respectively from their lows in 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The lithium market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with potential price fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics, as well as the impact of futures trading [6][7] - The global demand for lithium is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage sectors [7] - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries, may introduce new variables into the market, potentially exerting downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [9]