碳酸锂强势突破15万！锂矿股集体走强，升势能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in lithium carbonate prices is driven by favorable supply-demand fundamentals and supportive industry policies [5]. Price Movement - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures surged by 9%, closing at 156,060 CNY/ton, marking the first time in two years that prices have exceeded 150,000 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 152,463 CNY/ton, up 29.8% from 117,373 CNY/ton at the end of 2025 [3]. Demand Factors - The global electric vehicle market continues to thrive, with a 22% year-on-year increase in sales from January to November 2025, leading to a 32% rise in battery installation capacity to approximately 975.3 GWh [7]. - The demand from energy storage and other downstream sectors has exceeded expectations, effectively reducing inventory levels in the industry [7]. Supply Factors - The "anti-involution" process in the industry is accelerating, with a recent meeting involving major companies like CATL and BYD aimed at regulating competition [7]. - A new policy announced on January 9 will gradually eliminate the VAT export rebate for battery products starting in April 2026, which is expected to support production and prices in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. Company Performance - Lithium mining companies are experiencing significant profit growth due to the rebound in lithium carbonate prices. For instance, Salt Lake Potash expects a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65% [9]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit of 5.85 to 6.45 billion CNY for the full year of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.80% to 55.24% [9]. Future Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the overall supply-demand structure in the lithium battery industry is expected to improve further in 2026, driven by increased electric vehicle penetration and enhanced energy storage economics [10]. - The report suggests that the investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector should focus on leading companies across various segments and solid-state batteries [10].