2026年FOMC票委转向鸽派：特朗普会如愿实现降息吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's stance and market expectations for interest rate changes in 2026, influenced by new appointments and the economic environment [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will leave in the new year, with their replacements being more balanced in terms of hawkish and dovish views [3]. - The upcoming leadership change, particularly the potential appointment of a more dovish successor to Chairman Powell, could alter market expectations for interest rate cuts [4][6]. - The FOMC is expected to consider economic data over ideological leanings, which may lead to a more dovish or neutral stance in 2026 [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq 100 index has shown strong performance at the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 2% due to improved market confidence and reduced attractiveness of alternative assets [7]. - The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from around 4.2% to the 4.0% range has contributed to the capital flow towards high-risk assets like the Nasdaq index [7]. - Seasonal effects, such as the "January effect," are driving strong demand for Nasdaq components as institutional portfolios are being rebalanced for the new year [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Nasdaq index is currently trading within a defined range, with resistance at approximately 26,054 points and support at around 24,112 points [8][10]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buying momentum is beginning to dominate, which could lead to bullish pressure on the Nasdaq index if the trend continues [9]. - The MACD histogram remains around the neutral zero line, suggesting that short-term price movements may remain volatile unless significant changes occur [10].