TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2026-01-12 09:03Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to provide strong guidance for Q1 2026 and the full year during its Q4 2025 earnings announcement, with a target price of 2100 TWD reflecting a 25% upside from the recent closing price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach 1.046 trillion TWD, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1] - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue is expected to be 335 billion TWD, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed the company's guidance of 59%-61%, with Morgan Stanley predicting a gross margin of 62% [1] Group 2: Q1 2026 Expectations - For Q1 2026, TSMC is expected to provide guidance for revenue growth that is flat, while Morgan Stanley anticipates a 2% increase in USD terms [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2026 is projected to be between 61%-63%, with Morgan Stanley's expectation set at 63% [3] Group 3: Long-term Projections - For the full year 2026, TSMC is expected to provide guidance for revenue growth in the mid-20% range, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a 30% increase in USD terms [3] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $46 billion and $50 billion, with Morgan Stanley estimating $48 billion [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for data center AI revenue from 2024 to 2029 is expected to be in the mid-50% range, with Morgan Stanley's estimate at 57% [2][3]