黄金站上4600美元 追？等？还是撤？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, a crisis of trust in the Federal Reserve, and a weakening dollar, leading to increased global risk aversion [2][3][4] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over political interference in the Fed's independence, contributing to a decline in the dollar index and U.S. stock futures, which in turn supports higher gold and silver prices [3] - Ongoing U.S. military interventions, particularly in Venezuela, have heightened geopolitical risks, further bolstering market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4] - The accumulation of fiscal risks in the U.S., with national debt nearing $40 trillion and a fiscal deficit rate of 6.8%, has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, making gold a preferred choice for both institutions and retail investors [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset, with expectations of net purchases exceeding 1000 tons by 2025, reflecting a shift towards "de-dollarization" [4] - The strategic accumulation of gold by central banks is expected to continue, with UBS predicting purchases to rise to 950 tons in 2026, indicating a long-term trend in gold's role as a stabilizing asset on national balance sheets [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Ordinary investors are experiencing a divide in sentiment regarding gold prices, with a surge in gold account openings alongside reports of individuals facing losses from recent price fluctuations [6][7] - Investment strategies vary, with recommendations for those looking to "chase" gold to use idle funds and adopt a phased buying approach, while those opting to "wait" should set specific price triggers for entry [7] - For those considering "withdrawal," it is advised to lock in profits or exit if gold is misperceived as a short-term speculative tool [7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The current gold price level serves as a reflection of individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of a clear investment framework rather than merely speculating on price peaks [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on building resilient portfolios that can withstand market volatility, rather than seeking quick gains, highlighting the significance of long-term holding strategies [8]