碳酸锂期货一字涨停，冲破15万元，两年来首次

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has shown strong performance, with lithium carbonate prices surging to a record high, driven by export tax policy adjustments and robust demand in the new energy sector [1][5][6]. Price Movement - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, increasing by 9% to 156,060 yuan/ton, marking the first time it has surpassed the 150,000 yuan threshold in two years [1]. - Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have risen dramatically, breaking through multiple price barriers and rebounding over 150% from the low point in June of the previous year [1]. Spot Market Performance - On the same day, the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 152,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaged 148,500 yuan/ton, both showing significant increases of 8.57% and 8.79% respectively [3]. - The A-share lithium mining index also saw substantial gains, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Jinyuan Co. rising over 6% [3][4]. Policy Impact - The recent adjustment in export tax policy for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to create a rush for exports before the tax rate decreases from 9% to 6% and eventually to zero [5]. - Analysts believe this policy change will directly impact corporate profitability and drive a surge in lithium battery exports, contributing to the recent price increases [5]. Demand Dynamics - Demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors has exceeded expectations, shifting market sentiment from "oversupply" to "tight balance" [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show significant demand growth compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a strong market outlook for lithium carbonate prices [6]. Market Risks and Concerns - There are concerns that if lithium carbonate prices continue to rise and exceed 200,000 yuan/ton, it could lead to cost pressures across the supply chain, potentially suppressing downstream demand [6]. - Some market participants are worried about speculative trading in lithium carbonate, which may disrupt the supply chain and lead to misallocation of investments, exacerbating long-term oversupply risks [6]. Regulatory Measures - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market, regulatory bodies have implemented measures such as adjusting trading fees and limits to mitigate potential risks [6].