高盛展望2026大中华区科技趋势：ASIC成AI服务器增量核心，光模块迈向1.6T，果链领跑智能手机.......

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a report on the outlook for the Greater China technology sector in 2026, highlighting three main themes: AI infrastructure upgrades, innovations in consumer electronics, and localization of semiconductors. The report identifies the increasing penetration of ASIC AI servers and changes in iPhone form factors as key drivers for industry growth. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Server Trends - AI servers are transitioning from a GPU-dominated landscape to a parallel development of GPU and ASIC, with ASIC becoming the core increment due to its advantages in specific training and inference scenarios [2] - By 2026, the penetration rate of ASIC in AI servers is expected to rise significantly, leading to rapid growth in rack-level AI server shipments and a shift towards higher integration and power density in server architecture [2] - The demand for high-speed interconnects, cooling, and power systems will increase as the value of the entire machine rises [2] Group 2: Networking and Cooling Technologies - The evolution of high-speed optical interconnects is a key trend, with a transition from 400G to 800G and eventually to 1.6T driven by the expanding scale of computing power [3] - New technologies like silicon photonics and CPO are maturing, setting the stage for significant growth in high-speed optical modules by 2026 [3] - Liquid cooling solutions are expected to see increased adoption in ASIC AI servers, transitioning from localized applications to more systematic solutions, enhancing cooling efficiency and creating new technical barriers [4] Group 3: ODM and Competitive Landscape - The complexity of AI servers is increasing customer reliance on ODM manufacturers, with competitive advantages shifting towards multi-chip platform adaptability and rapid delivery capabilities [5] - Leading ODMs with advanced manufacturing capabilities and long-term service relationships with cloud vendors are expected to dominate AI server orders, while smaller players will face limited opportunities [5] Group 4: Consumer Electronics and iPhone Innovations - The global PC market is projected to face growth pressures, with the end of pandemic-driven demand and rising memory costs impacting terminal demand [7] - The iPhone is entering a continuous cycle of form factor innovation, with foldable models expected to significantly influence consumer upgrade behavior and drive demand for high-end components [8] - The smartphone market is experiencing a mild recovery, with growth driven by an increase in high-end models and AI functionalities enhancing user experience [9] Group 5: Semiconductor and PCB Market Dynamics - The high-end PCB and CCL markets are experiencing supply constraints due to rising demand from AI servers and high-end consumer electronics, leading to increased pricing power and profitability [10] - The domestic semiconductor industry is entering an accelerated phase, driven by growing demand for computing power and local acceptance of domestic chips and materials [11] - Emerging fields such as L4 autonomous driving and low-orbit satellites are expected to open up long-term growth opportunities, with increasing demand for chips and system integration [12]