布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美国12月非农新增5万人不及预期 前值大幅下修

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025 revealed a complex picture with job growth falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased, and prior values were significantly revised downwards [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In December 2025, the U.S. non-farm payroll increased by 50,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 70,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate fell from a revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%, slightly better than anticipated [3]. - Revisions to previous months showed November's job growth adjusted down from 64,000 to 56,000, and October's data revised from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, totaling a downward adjustment of 76,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The total non-farm employment growth for 2025 was 584,000, a significant slowdown compared to 2 million in 2024 [3]. Sector Contributions - The main contributors to job growth in December were the restaurant services, healthcare, and social assistance sectors, each adding tens of thousands of jobs [3]. - Conversely, the retail trade sector saw job losses, and public sector employment growth was nearly stagnant [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.8% was slightly above market estimates [3]. Market Reaction - The report led to a significant adjustment in interest rate futures, with traders lowering the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term [5]. - The likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting was nearly zero, with March's probability dropping to about 30% and April's below 50% [5]. - The consensus suggests the Fed may consider its first rate cut in spring or summer [5]. Economic Context - The average monthly job growth in the private sector for 2025 was only 61,000, marking the weakest growth since 2003 without an economic recession [5]. - This phenomenon of "recruitment recession" or "jobless prosperity" has become a focal point for economists [5]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts had mixed interpretations of the report, but many agreed it reinforced the Fed's cautious stance [7]. - The report indicated a moderate slowdown in the U.S. hiring environment, which may prompt the Fed to adopt a slow and careful approach to rate cuts to ensure continued economic expansion [7].