黄金年涨64%破46年纪录，2026狂欢延续，致命风险暗藏

Core Insights - In 2025, gold experienced a remarkable increase of 64%, marking the largest annual gain in 46 years, with multiple historical highs reached throughout the year [3][4] - The surge in gold prices is part of a broader trend where precious metals, including silver and platinum, also saw significant increases, with silver futures rising approximately 132% [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decline in the US dollar index by 5.2%, and a global trend towards "de-dollarization" as countries seek more reliable assets [7][8] Market Dynamics - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold, with purchases reaching about 980 tons in 2025, accounting for 26.8% of annual production, tightening supply-demand dynamics [12] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in 2025 has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in the asset as other options become less attractive [12] - Gold is transitioning from an optional asset to a necessary component for balancing risk in investment portfolios, reflecting a shift in market perception [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, as the significant price increase in 2025 may have already priced in expectations related to a weak dollar, rate cuts, and de-dollarization [15] - A recommended strategy for ordinary investors is to use dollar-cost averaging when purchasing gold ETFs to mitigate price volatility, rather than making large, one-time investments [17] - It is suggested that gold should constitute 5%-15% of household liquid assets, serving as a stabilizing element against risks in equity and bond markets [17]