外储五连涨破纪录，中国硬核操作曝光，全球资本震动

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.238 trillion as of June 2025, with potential to approach $3.35 trillion if the current stabilization trend continues, marking a high point since the "foreign reserve scare" of 2015 [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context - In 2015, China faced a "foreign reserve scare" due to a stock market crash and currency reform, leading to a significant drop in foreign reserves from nearly $3.9 trillion at the beginning of the year to a decrease of $512.6 billion for the entire year, with a record monthly decline of $107.9 billion in December [2][5] Group 2: Current Stability Factors - The current stability of foreign reserves is supported by three main factors: 1. A solid foreign trade foundation, with a projected merchandise trade surplus of $513 billion in 2024 and a 12% reduction in service trade deficit compared to previous years, contributing to foreign exchange inflows [7] 2. A balanced capital flow, with foreign investments in Chinese bonds and stocks, while domestic entities also invest abroad, avoiding a "capital flight" scenario [9] 3. Potential for valuation recovery, as a weaker US dollar and declining US Treasury yields could enhance the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves, such as euros and yen [10] Group 3: Strategic Importance of Foreign Reserves - Foreign reserves serve as a critical buffer during crises, exemplified by the 1997 Hong Kong financial defense, where the central government provided unlimited foreign exchange support to stabilize the currency [11] - The diversification of foreign reserves is being emphasized, with an increased focus on gold, which has risen to 7.8% of total reserves, and a shift in currency composition to reduce reliance on the US dollar [14][17] Group 4: Implications for the Economy - A stable foreign reserve position helps maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, which benefits cross-border tourism, education, and import costs, while ensuring the import of essential goods like food, oil, and chips [19] - Sufficient foreign reserves provide the necessary support to stabilize the industrial and supply chains, contributing to a more stable job market amid global economic pressures [19]