AGSW(SH:600199) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-12 10:33Core Viewpoint - Jinzhongzi Liquor announced a negative net profit forecast for 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of losses despite a narrowing loss margin, raising questions about the effectiveness of reforms since the entry of China Resources Group [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a negative net profit for 2025, continuing a trend of losses for five years [1] - Jinzhongzi's cash balance was only 367 million yuan, while interest-bearing liabilities totaled 375 million yuan, indicating ongoing financial strain [2][7] - The revenue from the liquor business dropped significantly, with a 24.33% decline in 2024 to 744 million yuan, reverting to 2021 levels [8] Group 2: Asset Disposal - The company transferred 92% of its subsidiary, Jinyang Pharmaceutical, for 126 million yuan, which was a significant profit contributor in the past [2][7] - Jinyang Pharmaceutical's revenue plummeted by 62% to 161 million yuan in 2024, and it reported a loss of 2.5 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][7] - The asset disposal is viewed as a desperate measure to alleviate financial pressure rather than a strategic focus on core business [2][7] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The high-end product strategy initiated by China Resources has not yielded expected results, with the core product series performing poorly [8] - The gross margin for the liquor business fell by 10.44 percentage points to 38.4% in 2024, with further declines in high-end and mid-range product margins [8] - The combined expense ratio of 44.31% exceeded the gross margin of 34.94%, creating a cycle of increasing losses [8] Group 4: Management Changes - The departure of key executives, including the general manager and CFO, signals a failure of the initial reform efforts and raises concerns about strategic continuity [4][9]