所有人注意了！2026年楼市升温，小阳春要来了

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2026 is showing positive signs with significant increases in transaction volumes in first-tier cities, driven by strong policy support and a gradual release of demand, indicating a transition from bottoming out to stabilization in the market [1][4]. Policy Support - The core driver of the 2026 real estate market recovery is systematic policy support, characterized by precise and substantial measures rather than tentative adjustments [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, proposing strategies such as "city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply" [4]. - Local governments are rapidly implementing supportive policies, including optimizing housing fund policies and providing subsidies to stimulate market activity [4]. Market Performance - The market has shown clear signs of recovery, with new home transaction volumes in first-tier cities surging by 74% in the first week of 2026, and Shenzhen experiencing a remarkable 263% increase [7]. - High-end properties in core cities are performing exceptionally well, with significant sales recorded in premium developments [7]. - Key indicators of the real estate market have returned to reasonable levels, with new construction and sales metrics reflecting historical lows, suggesting a solid foundation for market recovery [8]. Financial Environment - The financial environment remains supportive, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at historical lows and first-time home loan rates dropping below 3%, significantly reducing borrowing costs [8]. - The financing costs for leading real estate companies are stable, which helps mitigate delivery risks and boosts buyer confidence [8]. Structural Characteristics - The recovery in the real estate market will exhibit significant structural characteristics, moving away from a "universal rise" era [9]. - Core cities in metropolitan areas are expected to stabilize and even see structural price increases, while lower-tier cities may continue to face prolonged adjustment periods [9]. - The market is shifting towards higher-quality housing, with improved demand for better properties and a decline in the competitiveness of older stock [9]. Outlook for 2026 - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see a "small spring" in the market, with increased activity expected due to delayed traditional sales seasons and concentrated marketing efforts from developers [10]. - The overall market recovery will depend on improvements in employment and income expectations, as well as the availability of quality supply [10]. - The arrival of the "small spring" is viewed as a critical turning point for the industry, signaling a transition towards high-quality development in the real estate market [10].