首席经济学家激辩汇市：美元大循环趋于弱化，人民币怎么走

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is experiencing a shift towards multipolarity, with the weakening dominance of the US dollar and a potential strategic opportunity for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan as the yuan appreciates against the dollar [1][8]. Group 1: Dollar's Weakening Position - Since 2025, the US dollar index has declined from around 110 to approximately 100, indicating a weakening of the dollar's dominance in the international reserve system [3]. - Experts attribute the dollar's decline to high US government debt, which has reached $38 trillion, and fluctuating government policies that undermine confidence in the dollar [4][5]. - The transition from a gold-backed dollar to one primarily supported by US government credit has led to growing skepticism about the dollar's reliability [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions for Yuan Appreciation - Experts predict that the yuan will continue to appreciate against the dollar, with potential annual increases of 2%-3% over the next few years, leading to a total appreciation of over 30% in about a decade [6][7]. - The yuan's recent crossing of the 7 mark against the dollar is seen as a precursor to further appreciation, driven by the dollar's decline [6][7]. - High-quality development in China's manufacturing sector is expected to mitigate the impact of yuan appreciation on export enterprises, allowing them to adapt to currency fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Strategic Opportunities for Yuan Internationalization - The weakening of dollar credit opens up opportunities for the yuan's internationalization, with a potential shift towards a global monetary system where the dollar, euro, and yuan coexist [8]. - Experts emphasize the importance of strengthening domestic economic fundamentals to effectively seize the opportunity for yuan internationalization [8][9]. - Recommendations include expanding domestic demand and establishing offshore yuan trading centers to enhance the yuan's role in international trade and investment [9].