崔东树：锂电池出口退税对供需影响不大

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products, including lithium batteries, effective January 8, 2026. This move aims to align export prices with market supply and demand, reduce the phenomenon of "subsidizing overseas consumers," and address international concerns to ease trade frictions [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Demand Analysis - The overall demand for lithium batteries in passenger vehicles is projected to continue growing, although the expected explosive growth is not as pronounced. December saw a month-on-month decline of 5% in production, indicating lower-than-expected demand for lithium batteries [5][6]. - In December, the production of lithium batteries for new energy passenger vehicles reached 6,916 million degrees, a year-on-year increase of 20%, but a month-on-month decrease of 5%. The total for the year was 63,608 million degrees, reflecting a 29% increase [6]. - Retail demand for lithium batteries in new energy passenger vehicles showed significant weakness in December, with only 6,059 million degrees sold, indicating a slowdown in demand growth [9][10]. Group 2: Export Trends - The export of lithium batteries for new energy passenger vehicles has shown strong growth, primarily driven by BYD's contributions. However, the demand for batteries from independent suppliers remains limited [3][14]. - The export of lithium batteries is expected to face challenges, with a significant decline in exports to the U.S. projected for 2025, down 9.5 percentage points compared to 2024. The EU remains the primary market, accounting for about 40% of exports [20]. - In 2024, the export of lithium batteries is anticipated to be impacted by EU sanctions and tariffs, leading to a reduction in demand [14][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustment in export tax rebates is seen as a strategic move to stabilize the market and reduce speculation in lithium carbonate prices, particularly as the first quarter typically sees lower domestic demand for lithium batteries [1]. - The overall structure of lithium battery exports is shifting, with a notable decrease in exports to the U.S. and an increase in exports to the EU and Southeast Asia [20]. - The domestic demand for lithium batteries is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2026, with production adjustments likely necessary to align with fluctuating demand [3][18].