宽松交易临近，创新药延续反弹

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has emerged as the best-performing segment in the market during the first week of trading this year, with several companies rebounding over 10% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The primary reasons for the strong performance include a significant rise in global markets, with the US biotech ETF XBI outperforming the market by 25% since Q4 2025, while Hong Kong innovative drugs are beginning to recover the gap [1][3]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with ongoing interest in AI themes and innovative drugs, leading to new highs in US biotech stocks [1][3]. - Anticipation for the upcoming JPM Healthcare Conference is high, as Chinese innovative drug companies are expected to present data that could facilitate more business development (BD) transactions [1][9]. Group 2: Business Development Opportunities - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from a surge in BD transactions, with projections indicating that by 2025, the total value of BD deals involving Chinese innovative drug companies could reach $135.6 billion, with 157 transactions expected [9][11]. - Recent notable BD transactions include a $2 billion licensing deal for a prostate cancer drug and a $1.06 billion deal for an ADC drug, highlighting the growing interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies [9][11]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Valuation - The expectation of US interest rate cuts is rising, with a 40.7% probability of a rate cut in March, which could serve as a catalyst for the innovative drug sector throughout the year [11][12]. - The valuation of the innovative drug sector has adjusted significantly, with current static valuations being much lower compared to September 2025, indicating potential for future growth as the sector continues to attract BD transactions [12][13]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, investing in innovative drugs through ETFs is recommended as a stable approach, particularly with the anticipated increase in BD transactions and the potential for significant returns [15].