SIRIO(SZ:300791) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-12 12:36Core Viewpoint - Xianle Health is a leading CDMO enterprise in the health supplement industry, with a stable revenue and net profit CAGR of 18% from 2012 to 2024, actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance its global supply chain [1] Company Overview - The company specializes in the R&D and manufacturing of health and functional foods, with significant acquisitions in Europe and America to establish production bases [1] - By 2024, the revenue distribution is projected to be 39% from China, 40% from America, 14% from Europe, and 7% from other markets, indicating that overseas revenue has surpassed domestic [1] - The company has multiple R&D centers and a strong innovation capability, allowing it to quickly respond to market trends and customer needs [1] Industry Insights - The global health supplement market is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2028, with North America, China, and Europe being the top three markets [2] - The CDMO segment is anticipated to grow faster than the overall health supplement industry, with a projected market size of 220 to 250 billion yuan in 2024 and a growth rate of 7-9% from 2024 to 2028 [2] - China's health supplement market could potentially double from 250 billion yuan in 2024 to 520 billion yuan, assuming an increase in penetration rate and consumer spending [2] Regional Performance - The European factory Ayanda is performing steadily, with an expected low double-digit growth rate due to effective sales strategies [3] - The acquisition of Best Formulation (BF) is showing improvement in core nutrition orders, with operational challenges expected to be resolved by 2025 [3] - New retail channels are becoming increasingly important, contributing nearly 100 million yuan in orders since Q3 2024, with a market share exceeding 50% in the domestic market [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.522, 5.044, and 5.636 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 12% respectively [4] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 253 million, 405 million, and 477 million yuan, with a projected decline in 2025 followed by recovery [4] - The current PE ratios are 30x, 19x, and 16x, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's competitive advantages in overseas markets and R&D [4]