2026年金属如何投？基金经理给出三大关键词：稀缺资源、结构机遇、估值健康

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by a combination of reasonable valuations, structural differentiation, and supply scarcity, indicating long-term investment value despite short-term market emotions [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold's recent price increase is attributed to its role as a pricing tool for global monetary stability rather than traditional notions of "safe haven" or "interest rate expectations" [3]. - The ongoing expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit is weakening dollar credibility, which supports gold's upward trend [3]. - Institutional investors, particularly through ETFs, have become the primary buyers of gold since 2025, indicating its integration into diversified asset allocation frameworks [3]. Group 2: Copper as a Strategic Resource - Copper is transitioning from a traditional cyclical commodity to a strategic resource with growth attributes, impacting the valuation and investment duration of related companies [4]. - The depletion of high-quality copper mines and rising extraction costs are extending the supply release timeline, suggesting that high copper prices may persist longer [4]. - The market is increasingly valuing companies based on sustained profitability rather than short-term performance, leading to a revaluation of copper firms [4]. Group 3: Sector Health and Valuation - The non-ferrous metal sector remains in a healthy valuation state, with current PE ratios around 10-12, which is lower than historical averages compared to other high-valuation sectors [5]. - A PE ratio of 20-30 would signal potential overheating in the sector, as it would imply a lengthy payback period for investments [5]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more selective approach in 2026, focusing on companies with favorable supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector in 2026 is summarized by three keywords: valuation, structure, and scarcity, emphasizing the importance of maintaining focus on quality amid market volatility [6].