金银大涨再创新高，国内金饰克价逼近1430元，还将“狂飙”多久？

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 and COMEX futures at $4597.6, marking a daily increase of approximately 2% [1] - Silver prices have also surged, with spot silver exceeding $84 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 5.5%, and year-to-date gains of 17.44% [1] - Domestic gold and silver futures in China have shown significant increases, with gold futures reaching a high of 1031.3 yuan per gram and silver futures hitting 20998 yuan per kilogram, marking daily increases of 2.57% and 14.42% respectively [1] Group 2 - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran [4] - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar, strong ETF buying, and ongoing central bank purchases are driving gold prices higher, with central bank gold reserves reported at 7415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) [5] - The potential for central banks to increase their gold reserves significantly could push gold prices up by approximately $1000 if the top 50 central banks increase their gold holdings by just 1% [5] Group 3 - Short-term corrections in gold prices may occur due to overbought conditions, but bullish sentiment remains strong, especially amid rising risk aversion [6] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the recent investigation into Powell will accelerate existing upward trends rather than create short-term fluctuations [6] - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, noting a structural shift where gold's share in global central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [6]